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学科主题: 临床医学
题名:
A Mathematical Model for Predicting Malignancy of Solitary Pulmonary Nodules
作者: Li, Yun; Wang, Jun
刊名: WORLD JOURNAL OF SURGERY
发表日期: 2012-04-01
DOI: 10.1007/s00268-012-1449-8
卷: 36, 期:4, 页:830-835
收录类别: SCI
文章类型: Article
WOS标题词: Science & Technology
类目[WOS]: Surgery
研究领域[WOS]: Surgery
关键词[WOS]: LUNG-CANCER ; CT ; EPIDEMIOLOGY ; PROBABILITY ; MANAGEMENT ; DIFFERENTIATION ; GUIDELINES ; LIKELIHOOD ; GENETICS ; LESIONS
英文摘要:

The goal of the present study was to differentiate between benign and malignant solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) by developing a mathematical prediction model.

Records from 371 patients (197 male, 174 female) with SPN between January 2000 and September 2009 were reviewed (group A). Clinical data were collected to estimate the independent predictors of malignancy of SPN with multivariate logistic regression analysis. A clinical prediction model was subsequently developed. Between October 2009 and May 2011, data from an additional 145 patients with SPN were used to validate this new clinical prediction model (group B). The same data were also estimated with two previously published models for comparison with our new model.

The median patient age was 57.1 years in group A; 54% of the nodules were malignant and 46% were benign. Logistic regression analysis identified six clinical characteristics (age, diameter, border, calcification, spiculation, and family history of tumor) as independent predictors of malignancy in patients with SPN. The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve for our model (0.874 +/- A 0.028) was higher than those generated using the other two reported models. In our model, sensitivity = 94.5%, specificity = 70.0%, positive predictive value = 87.8%, and negative predictive value = 84.8%).

Age, diameter, border, calcification, spiculation, and family history of tumor were independent predictors of malignancy in patients with SPN. Our prediction model was sufficient to estimate malignancy in patients with SPN and proved to be more accurate than the two existing models.

语种: 英语
WOS记录号: WOS:000301591200021
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.bjmu.edu.cn/handle/400002259/53978
Appears in Collections:北京大学第二临床医学院_胸外科_期刊论文

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作者单位: Peking Univ, Peoples Hosp, Dept Thorac Surg, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Li, Yun,Wang, Jun. A Mathematical Model for Predicting Malignancy of Solitary Pulmonary Nodules[J]. WORLD JOURNAL OF SURGERY,2012,36(4):830-835.
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