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Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence
Yu, Weiwei1,2; Mengersen, Kerrie3; Wang, Xiaoyu1,2; Ye, Xiaofang1,2; Guo, Yuming1,2; Pan, Xiaochuan4; Tong, Shilu1,2
关键词Elderly Meta-analysis Mortality Systematic Review Temperature
刊名INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY
2012-07-01
DOI10.1007/s00484-011-0497-3
56期:4页:569-581
收录类别SCI ; SSCI
文章类型Review
WOS标题词Science & Technology
类目[WOS]Biophysics ; Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Physiology
资助者Australian Research Council ; Queensland University of Technology ; NHMRC ; Australian Research Council ; Queensland University of Technology ; NHMRC
研究领域[WOS]Biophysics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Physiology
关键词[WOS]HEAT-RELATED MORTALITY ; 15 EUROPEAN CITIES ; UNITED-STATES ; AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE ; TIME-SERIES ; SAO-PAULO ; WINTER-MORTALITY ; CASE-CROSSOVER ; PHEWE PROJECT ; US CITIES
英文摘要

The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1A degrees C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2-5% increase for a 1A degrees C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1A degrees C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.

语种英语
所属项目编号559655 ; 553043
资助者Australian Research Council ; Queensland University of Technology ; NHMRC ; Australian Research Council ; Queensland University of Technology ; NHMRC
WOS记录号WOS:000305685900002
引用统计
被引频次:59[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.bjmu.edu.cn/handle/400002259/57591
专题北京大学公共卫生学院
作者单位1.Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Publ Hlth, Kelvin Grove, Qld 4059, Australia
2.Queensland Univ Technol, Inst Hlth & Biomed Innovat, Kelvin Grove, Qld 4059, Australia
3.Queensland Univ Technol, Fac Sci & Technol, Discipline Math Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia
4.Peking Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Yu, Weiwei,Mengersen, Kerrie,Wang, Xiaoyu,et al. Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY,2012,56(4):569-581.
APA Yu, Weiwei.,Mengersen, Kerrie.,Wang, Xiaoyu.,Ye, Xiaofang.,Guo, Yuming.,...&Tong, Shilu.(2012).Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY,56(4),569-581.
MLA Yu, Weiwei,et al."Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 56.4(2012):569-581.
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