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学科主题: 公共卫生
题名:
Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence
作者: Yu, Weiwei1,2; Mengersen, Kerrie3; Wang, Xiaoyu1,2; Ye, Xiaofang1,2; Guo, Yuming1,2; Pan, Xiaochuan4; Tong, Shilu1,2
关键词: Elderly ; Meta-analysis ; Mortality ; Systematic review ; Temperature
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY
发表日期: 2012-07-01
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-011-0497-3
卷: 56, 期:4, 页:569-581
收录类别: SCI ; SSCI
文章类型: Review
WOS标题词: Science & Technology
类目[WOS]: Biophysics ; Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Physiology
研究领域[WOS]: Biophysics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Physiology
关键词[WOS]: HEAT-RELATED MORTALITY ; 15 EUROPEAN CITIES ; UNITED-STATES ; AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE ; TIME-SERIES ; SAO-PAULO ; WINTER-MORTALITY ; CASE-CROSSOVER ; PHEWE PROJECT ; US CITIES
英文摘要:

The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1A degrees C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2-5% increase for a 1A degrees C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1A degrees C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.

语种: 英语
所属项目编号: 559655 ; 553043
项目资助者: Australian Research Council ; Queensland University of Technology ; NHMRC
WOS记录号: WOS:000305685900002
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.bjmu.edu.cn/handle/400002259/57591
Appears in Collections:北京大学公共卫生学院_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Publ Hlth, Kelvin Grove, Qld 4059, Australia
2.Queensland Univ Technol, Inst Hlth & Biomed Innovat, Kelvin Grove, Qld 4059, Australia
3.Queensland Univ Technol, Fac Sci & Technol, Discipline Math Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia
4.Peking Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Yu, Weiwei,Mengersen, Kerrie,Wang, Xiaoyu,et al. Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY,2012,56(4):569-581.
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