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学科主题: 公共卫生
题名:
Estimation and projection of the national profile of cancer mortality in China: 1991-2005
作者: Yang, L; Parkin, DM; Li, LD; Chen, YD; Bray, F
关键词: mortality ; model ; projections ; China
刊名: BRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCER
发表日期: 2004-06-01
DOI: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6601813
卷: 90, 期:11, 页:2157-2166
收录类别: SCI
文章类型: Article
WOS标题词: Science & Technology
类目[WOS]: Oncology
研究领域[WOS]: Oncology
关键词[WOS]: CIGARETTE-SMOKING ; COHORT MODELS ; PREDICTION ; PERIOD ; RATES ; RISK ; AGE
英文摘要:

There are no national-level data on cancer mortality in China since two surveys in 1973-1975 and 1990-1992 (a 10% sample), but ongoing surveillance systems, based on nonrandom selected populations, give an indication as to the trends for major cancers. Based on a Jog-linear regression model with Poisson errors, the annual rates of change for 10 cancers and all other cancer′s combined, by age, sex and urban/rural residence were estimated from the data of the surveillance system of the Center for Health Information and Statistics, covering about 10% of the national population. These rates of change were applied to the survey data of 1990-1992 to estimate national mortality in the year 2000, and to make projections for 2005. Mortality rates for all cancers combined, adjusted for age, are predicted to change little between 1991 and 2005 (-0.8% in men and +2.5% in women), but population growth and ageing will result in an increasing number of deaths, from 1.2 to 1,8 million. The largest predicted increases are for the numbers of female breast (+155.4%) and lung cancers (+112.1% in men, +153.5% in women). For these two sites, mortality rates will almost double. Cancer will make an increasing contribution to the burden of diseases in China in the 21st century. The marked increases in risk of cancers of the lung, female breast and large bowel indicate priorities for prevention and control, The increasing trends in young age groups for cancers of the cervix, lung and female breast suggest that their predicted increases may be underestimated, and that more attention should be paid to strategies for their prevention and control. (C) 2004 Cancer Research UK.

语种: 英语
WOS记录号: WOS:000222415700021
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.bjmu.edu.cn/handle/400002259/62276
Appears in Collections:北京大学公共卫生学院_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Int Agcy Res Canc, F-69372 Lyon 08, France
2.Natl Off Canc Prevent & Control, Beijing 10021, Peoples R China
3.Peking Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Minist Hlth, Ctr Hlth Informat & Stat, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Yang, L,Parkin, DM,Li, LD,et al. Estimation and projection of the national profile of cancer mortality in China: 1991-2005[J]. BRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCER,2004,90(11):2157-2166.
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