IR@PKUHSC  > 北京大学精神卫生研究所
Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study
Ferri, CP; Prince, M; Brayne, C; Brodaty, H; Fratiglioni, L; Ganguli, M; Hall, K; Hasegawa, K; Hendrie, H; Huang, YQ
Source PublicationLANCET
Indexed BySCI

Background 100 years after the first description, Alzheimer′s disease is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. We used the Delphi consensus method to determine dementia prevalence for each world region.

Methods 12 international experts were provided with a systematic review of published studies on dementia and were asked to provide prevalence estimates for every WHO world region, for men and women combined, in 5-year age bands from 60 to 84 years, and for those aged 85 years and older. UN population estimates and projections were used to estimate numbers of people with dementia in 2001, 2020, and 2040. We estimated incidence rates from prevalence, remission, and mortality.

Findings Evidence from well-planned, representative epidemiological surveys is scarce in many regions. We estimate that 24.3 million people have dementia today, with 4.6 million new cases of dementia every year (one new case every 7 seconds). The number of people affected will double every 20 years to 81.1 million by 2040. Most people with dementia live in developing countries (60% in 2001, rising to 71% by 2040). Rates of increase are not uniform; numbers in developed countries are forecast to increase by 100% between 2001 and 2040, but by more than 300% in India, China, and their south Asian and western Pacific neighbours.

Interpretation We believe that the detailed estimates in this paper constitute the best currently available basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources.

Subject Area精神卫生
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology
WOS Research AreaGeneral & Internal Medicine
WOS SubjectMedicine, General & Internal
WOS IDWOS:000234146000026
Citation statistics
Cited Times:3491[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Affiliation1.Alzheimers Dis Int, London, England
2.Univ New S Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
3.Karolinska Inst, NEUROTEC, S-10401 Stockholm, Sweden
4.St Marianna Univ, Sch Med, Kanagawa, Japan
5.Peking Univ, Inst Mental Hlth, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
6.Univ Melbourne, Dept Psychiat, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
7.Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Psychiat, BR-05508 Sao Paulo, Brazil
8.Kings Coll London, Inst Psychiat, Epidemiol Sect, London SE5 8AF, England
9.Univ Cambridge, Dept Publ Hlth & Primary Care, Cambridge, England
10.Univ Pittsburgh, Sch Med, Dept Psychiat, Pittsburgh, PA USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ferri, CP,Prince, M,Brayne, C,et al. Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study[J]. LANCET,2005,366(9503):2112-2117.
APA Ferri, CP.,Prince, M.,Brayne, C.,Brodaty, H.,Fratiglioni, L.,...&Alzheimers Dis Intl.(2005).Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study.LANCET,366(9503),2112-2117.
MLA Ferri, CP,et al."Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study".LANCET 366.9503(2005):2112-2117.
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