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学科主题临床医学
Development and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Model to Estimate the Probability of Malignancy in Solitary Pulmonary Nodules in Chinese People
Li, Yun; Chen, Ke-Zhong; Wang, Jun
关键词Logistic regression analysis Prediction model Solitary pulmonary nodules
刊名CLINICAL LUNG CANCER
2011-09-01
DOI10.1016/j.cllc.2011.06.005
12期:5页:313-319
收录类别SCI
文章类型Article
WOS标题词Science & Technology
类目[WOS]Oncology
研究领域[WOS]Oncology
关键词[WOS]LUNG-CANCER ; CT ; MANAGEMENT ; DIFFERENTIATION ; LIKELIHOOD ; LESIONS ; BENIGN
英文摘要

Introduction: This study evaluated the clinical factors affecting the probability of malignancy of solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) using multivariate logistic regression analysis. A clinical prediction model was subsequently developed to estimate the probability of malignancy. This model was then validated. Methods: Medical records from 371 patients (197 men, 174 women) with a pathologic diagnosis of SPN made between January 2000 and September 2009, were reviewed. Clinical data were collected to estimate the independent predictors of malignancy of SPN with multivariate analysis. A clinical prediction model was subsequently created. Between October 2009 and March 2010, data from an additional 62 patients with a pathologic diagnosis of SPN were used to validate this clinical prediction model. The model was also compared with two previously described models. Results: Median patient age was 57.1 years old. Fifty-three percent of the nodules were malignant and 46% were benign. Logistic regression analysis identified six clinical characteristics (age, diameter, border, calcification, spiculation, and family history of tumor) as independent predictors of malignancy in patients with SPN. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for our model (0.89; 50% confidence interval [CI], 0.78-0.99) was higher than those generated using another two reported models. In our model, sensitivity was 92.5%, specificity was 81.8%, positive predictive value was 90.2%, and negative predictive value was 85.7%). Conclusions: Age of the patient, diameter, border, calcification, spiculation, and family history of tumors were independent predictors of malignancy in patients with SPN. Our prediction model was more accurate than the two existing models and was sufficient to estimate malignancy in patients with SPN.

语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000294600800008
引用统计
被引频次:25[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.bjmu.edu.cn/handle/400002259/64311
专题北京大学第二临床医学院_胸外科
北京大学基础医学院
作者单位Peking Univ, Peoples Hosp, Dept Thorac Surg, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Li, Yun,Chen, Ke-Zhong,Wang, Jun. Development and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Model to Estimate the Probability of Malignancy in Solitary Pulmonary Nodules in Chinese People[J]. CLINICAL LUNG CANCER,2011,12(5):313-319.
APA Li, Yun,Chen, Ke-Zhong,&Wang, Jun.(2011).Development and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Model to Estimate the Probability of Malignancy in Solitary Pulmonary Nodules in Chinese People.CLINICAL LUNG CANCER,12(5),313-319.
MLA Li, Yun,et al."Development and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Model to Estimate the Probability of Malignancy in Solitary Pulmonary Nodules in Chinese People".CLINICAL LUNG CANCER 12.5(2011):313-319.
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