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学科主题: 公共卫生
题名:
Modelling the potential impact of population-wide and targeted high-risk blood pressure-lowering strategies on cardiovascular disease in China
作者: Qin, Xueying1; Jackson, Rod2; Marshall, Roger2; Lee, Liming1; Cao, Weihua1; Zhan, Siyan1; Hu, Yonghua1
关键词: cardiovascular diseases ; hypertension ; population-wide strategy ; targeted strategy
刊名: EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF CARDIOVASCULAR PREVENTION & REHABILITATION
发表日期: 2009-02-01
DOI: 10.1097/HJR.0b013e32831fd6de
卷: 16, 期:1, 页:96-101
收录类别: SCI
文章类型: Article
WOS标题词: Science & Technology
类目[WOS]: Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems
研究领域[WOS]: Cardiovascular System & Cardiology
关键词[WOS]: CORONARY-HEART-DISEASE ; PRIMARY PREVENTION ; REDUCTION
英文摘要:

Background To estimate the impact of population-wide and high-risk blood pressure-lowering strategies on cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in China.

Design A modelling study based on a community cohort of 30 362 men and women aged 35-74 years in urban Shanghai, China, 3.3% of whom have existing CVD.

Methods We modelled three blood pressure-lowering strategies: population-wide salt reduction, or anti hypertensive drug treatment (following Chinese guidelines) for two subpopulations with either high blood pressure (>= 150/95 mmHg), or high baseline-predicted CVD risk ( >= 10% in 10 years based on a multivariate risk model). Avoidable CVD events were estimated by applying a range of relative risk reductions in CVD, 5-7.5% for population-wide salt reduction and 20-25% for drug treatment derived from meta-analyses. Drug compliance was assumed to be 50%.

Results Population-wide salt reduction would avoid 240-362 events per 100 000 population over 10 years. Drug treatment for the 14.1 % of people with raised blood pressure could avoid 217-273 events, whereas treating the 14.2% of people with predicted 10-year CVD risk over 10% would avoid 310-385 events. Of the prevented events, 70-80% would occur in over 60 years and almost a third of the events were predicted to occur among the 3.3% of people with prevalent CVD.

Conclusion Population-wide and high-risk blood pressure-lowering strategies would have a similar impact on CVD incidence in urban China. The expected epidemic of CVD could be reduced by highly targeted drug treatment while more sustainable population-wide strategies are put in place. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil 16:96-101 (C) 2009 The European Society of Cardiology

语种: 英语
所属项目编号: 96-906-02-05
项目资助者: Ministry of Science and Technology of China
WOS记录号: WOS:000264365000016
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.bjmu.edu.cn/handle/400002259/64845
Appears in Collections:北京大学公共卫生学院_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Peking Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China
2.Univ Auckland, Epidemiol & Biostat Sect, Sch Populat Hlth, Auckland 1, New Zealand

Recommended Citation:
Qin, Xueying,Jackson, Rod,Marshall, Roger,et al. Modelling the potential impact of population-wide and targeted high-risk blood pressure-lowering strategies on cardiovascular disease in China[J]. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF CARDIOVASCULAR PREVENTION & REHABILITATION,2009,16(1):96-101.
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