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POSSUM、P-POSSUM和Cr-POSSUM对结直肠癌患者住院期间病死率预测能力的比较
其他题名In-hospital morbidity and mortality for patients of colorectal cancer evaluated by three different POSSUM models
任立焕; 傅卫; 王亮; 李磊; 张春; 袁炯; 王德臣; 吕旌乔; 张同琳
关键词结直肠肿瘤 死亡率 预测 手术后并发症 Colorectal neoplasms Mortality Forecasting Postoperative complications
刊名中华普通外科杂志
2008
DOI10.3760/j.issn:1007-631X.2008.04.001
23期:4页:241-244
收录类别中国科技核心期刊 ; 中文核心期刊 ; CSCD
文章类型Journal Article
摘要目的 比较并发症和病死率的生理和手术严重性评分(physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity,POSSUM)、并发症和病死率的生理和手术严重性评分(Portsmouth POSSUM,P-POSSUM)、结直肠切除的并发症和病死率的生理和手术严重性评分(colorectal POSSUM,Cr-POSSUM)对结直肠癌患者住院期间病死率的预测能力.方法 调查北京大学第三医院1992-2005年903例结直肠癌外科手术切除的资料.903例中,结肠癌518例,直肠癌385例.用ROC曲线分析判断评分的判别能力,用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验判断评分的拟合优度,用不同危险因素群的O∶E值判断评分的预测能力.结果 903例患者住院期间的病死率为1.0%(9/903).POSSUM、P-POSSUM、Cr-POSSUM预测的病死率分别为5.6%、2.8%、4.8%,三种评分预测的病死率明显高于实际的病死率,O:E值分别为0.18、0.35、0.2.结论 POSSUM、P-POSSUM和Cr-POSSUM在结直肠癌手术中预测的病死率高于实际病死率. objective To compare three risk prediction system,the physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity(POSSUM),the Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM)and the colorectal POSSUM(Cr-POSSUM)for the accuracy in predicting operative mortality of patients of colorectal cancer in a single Chinese referral hospital setting. Methods Data of 903 patients,who undergone surgery for colon and rectal cancers from 1992 to 2005 at Peking University Third Hospital,were enrolled in the study.POSSUM,P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM was used respectively to predict the mortality rate.ROC curve was applied to judge the differentiation ability of each score.Model goodness-or-fit was tested by the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic and subgroup analysis was performed by the ratio of observed to expected deaths(O∶E ratio). Results The actual inhospital mortality in our series was 1.0%(9/903).The oredicted mortality rate by POSSUM,P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM were 5.6%,2.8% and 4.8%respectively.These predicted mortality rate were significantly higher than actual mortality of our patients.The O∶E ratio was 0.18,0.35 and 0.2 respectively. Conclusion The predicted mortality rate of POSSUM,P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM were significantly higher than actual observed mortality rate in a single Chinese referral hospital for patients of colorectal cancer.
语种中文
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.bjmu.edu.cn/handle/400002259/73277
专题北京大学第三临床医学院_普通外科
作者单位1.北京大学第三医院普通外科,100083
2.北京大学第三医院流行病研究中心
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GB/T 7714
任立焕,傅卫,王亮,等. POSSUM、P-POSSUM和Cr-POSSUM对结直肠癌患者住院期间病死率预测能力的比较[J]. 中华普通外科杂志,2008,23(4):241-244.
APA 任立焕.,傅卫.,王亮.,李磊.,张春.,...&张同琳.(2008).POSSUM、P-POSSUM和Cr-POSSUM对结直肠癌患者住院期间病死率预测能力的比较.中华普通外科杂志,23(4),241-244.
MLA 任立焕,et al."POSSUM、P-POSSUM和Cr-POSSUM对结直肠癌患者住院期间病死率预测能力的比较".中华普通外科杂志 23.4(2008):241-244.
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